Indonesia: Trade surplus widened above estimates – UOB

Enrico Tanuwidjaja, Economist at UOB Group, assesses the recently published trade balance figures in Indonesia.

Key Takeaways

“Indonesia’s trade surplus widened again to USD5.8bn in Aug from USD 4.2bn in Jul, an increase of more than USD1.5bn and much higher than market expectations of USD 4.0bn.”

“Exports grew 30.1% y/y, beating market expectations of 20% by a wide margin to achieve almost USD 28bn, driven significantly by non-oil & gas exports that reached more than USD26bn. Import’s growth remained elevated at 32.8% y/y though slowing from 41.2% in Jul. However, imports growth rose faster than consensus estimates of 31.6%, reaching USD 22.2bn.”

“Given the momentum so far, we expect the overall trade surplus to surpass 2021’s record of more than USD35.4bn, amidst consistently stronger exports growth on the back of still-elevated global commodity prices.”