UK: GDP and manufacturing to surprise to the upside in November – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) are geared up for a positive surprise in the November GDP data from the UK amid an improvement in the services sector.

Key quotes

“We are looking for a significant upside surprise to November GDP growth, with the UK economy expanding 0.8% m/m (mkt: 0.4%) on the back of strong growth in both the services and manufacturing sectors.”

“The boost to services from the pull forward in consumer demand has yet to materialize in prior months' data, but we believe it will show up in November's numbers and result in a significant upside surprise to the IoS print, as we forecast 0.8% m/m growth while consensus looks for 0.5%.”

“We expect manufacturing to surprise to the upside as well, as we look for 0.8% m/m growth in November manufacturing output (mkt: 0.2%) with growth in motor vehicle production being a significant driver. This would altogether leave GDP on track for 1.1% q/q growth in Q4 2021—slightly above the BoE's forecast of 1.0%.”