EUR/GBP set to move closer to 0.80 this autumn – SocGen

EUR/GBP seems to have moved to a post-Brexit era and is tracking rate differentials and shifting growth expectations rather more confidently now. On that basis, economists at Société Générale expect the pair to edge lower towards 0.80 by autumn. 

BoE to tighten monetary policy well before the ECB

“EUR/GBP diverged from yields and spiked in 2019 as the EU departure date approached and the domestic political backdrop got very clouded. Since the initial COVID-related volatility calmed down, the two lines have moved in harmony.” 

“The likelihood that the UK will tighten monetary policy well before the ECB suggests that EUR/GBP is now more likely to drift towards 0.80 than drift upwards towards 0.90.”