When is the Australian employment report and how could it affect AUD/USD?

April month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 01:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders. The figures become all the more important as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) keeps its dovish bias on the jobs figures despite holding economic optimism.

AUD/USD traders will also be interested in noting that how the end of the JobKeeper program affects Aussie employment.

Market consensus favors Employment Change to ease to 15.0K from 70.7K on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas the Unemployment Rate is likely to remain unchanged at 5.6%. Further, the Participation Rate may also stay intact at 66.3%.

TD Securities expect a mixed data while saying,

We expect a headline employment decline of -15k (market forecastt: +20k) in Apr, a reversal from the strong 71k gain last month, ending 6 consecutive months of gains that brought employment back to pre-Covid levels. The monthly decline in the payroll data, expiry of JobKeeper, coupled with the disappointing offshore employment outcome in the US are likely to result in a softening of the labor market in Apr. We expect the participation rate to remain unchanged at 66.3%, which implies a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 5.8% from 5.6% previously. We retain our core view that there could be some impact on the labor market from Jobkeeper which brings unemployment slightly higher to 5.75% by end June, contrary to RBA and the Treasury's expectations (RBA:5.25%, Treasury:5.5%).

Additionally, analysts at Westpac said,

At 11:30 am Sydney/9:30 am Singapore, several factors will be at play in Australia’s April labor force survey. On the positive side are the robust job vacancies data and surging employment indicators pointing to strong demand for labor. On the negative side are the ending of JobKeeper and the languishing of tourism and hospitality industries in the CBDs in particular. Add to this, those industries that are growing are finding it hard to recruit labor. We are looking for a 10k rise in employment, and if the participation rate is flat at 66.3% this will see the unemployment rate holding at 5.6%. The median forecast is +20k jobs, 5.6% unemployment.

How could the data affect AUD/USD?

AUD/USD holds lower ground near 0.7730, down 0.05% intraday, ahead of the key Aussie even of Thursday. In doing so, the quote seeks fresh impulse while keeping the previous day’s bearish bias, mainly led by the risk-off mood taking clues from the US FOMC minutes.

It should, however, be noted that the scheduled employment data is already expected to point to downbeat figures and hence the AUD/USD bears are hopeful. However, a positive surprise won’t hesitate to recall the pair buyers as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is optimistic over the economic trajectory from the pandemic.

Technically, AUD/USD is yet to conquer the key supports, including an ascending trend line from April 13 near 0.7705, preceded by 50-day and 100-day SMAs close to 0.7725 and 0.7715, which in turn backs the pair’s bounce towards 0.7800. However, any further upside needs to cross the 0.7820 hurdle to recall the buyers.

Key Notes

AUD/USD: Depressed near 0.7700 on risk-off mood, Australia employment eyed 

AUD/USD Forecast: Under pressure ahead of Australian employment data

Australian Employment Preview: End of JobKeeper wage subsidy impedes labor market recovery

About the Employment Change

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

About the Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).