EUR/NOK: The Norwegian krone rally is finished for now – Nordea

The krone rally continued last week, but analysts at Nordea believe that NOK has reached the peak for now. The EUR/NOK pair is more likely to move up than further down in the near-term.

See – EUR/NOK: Krone to rebound further but at more gradual pace – MUFG

Key quotes

“EUR/NOK has fallen around 3.5% since 22 December 2020 when this rally began. Previous rallies have ended with movements between 3% and 4%. This suggests that the end of this rally is near.”

“The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has come below 30, a sign that NOK is overbought against the EUR. Usually, after an RSI reading below 30, EUR/NOK either moves up or consolidates.”

“Foreigners are already quite long NOK. At the current EUR/NOK levels, the foreign financial speculators could be tempted to unwind their long NOK positions. The same argument holds for domestic financial speculators. Any headwinds in financial markets will likely lead to a snowball effect whereby financial speculators all head for the door at once, potentially leading to a sharp rise in EUR/NOK.”

“With most of the oil bullishness already priced in, oil prices are likely near their peak for now, restricting the upside for NOK in the short-term. Further upside in the oil price is probably very limited in the short term, and we don’t expect prices above $60/barrel before the summer.”

“On the upside, we see resistance at 10.50 and then at 10.60. We see support at 10.30 but this level fell last week and the next line in the sand is 10.20.”