Oil: Very small likelihood of any coordinated supply response – ANZ

Investors will be focused on the planned meeting of oil producers scheduled for 9 April. Strategists at ANZ Bank see the likelihood of any coordinated supply response as very small.

Key quotes

“OPEC called for a meeting of the old OPEC+ alliance for Monday 6 April but the cracks started to appear early. The OPEC meeting has been moved to Wednesday 9 April; and, while the meeting is open to any producer, there is uncertainty surrounding involvement of the US shale industry.” 

“We believe the actions are too little, too late. The market is already awash with crude, with physical spot prices struggling. We also believe any agreement on production cuts will have minimal impact on the oil market.” 

“The closing of borders and lockdowns has had a catastrophic impact on oil demand. Flight activity has fallen by more than 60% over the past month, while traffic in the US and Europe is down 60% and 45% respectively. Overall, we calculate world crude oil demand has fallen by about 20mb/d.”