China: Local budget deficit likely to undershoot – Standard Chartered

In view of analysts at Standard Chartered, China’s 2019 budget is unlikely to be fully implemented as the broadly defined budget, including the general public and government funds budgets, envisages a consolidated deficit of 6.5% of GDP, based on their calculation.

Key Quotes

“The budget deficit is 1.8ppt higher (as a percentage of GDP) than the actual 2018 deficit, representing a significant fiscal stimulus if the budget is fully implemented. The fiscal data up to November suggests the general public budget is on track. The government funds budget, financed mainly by local land revenue and special bond issuance, will likely miss the target.”

“Under the general public budget, December spending may not exceed spending in December 2018. In 11M-2019, revenue under this category grew 3.8% y/y (slower than budgeted) and expenditure increased 7.7% y/y (faster than budgeted). As a result, the YTD deficit is at CNY 2.75tn, CNY 808bn higher than the same period last year. If the 2019 budget is fully implemented, the December deficit will be CNY 1.5tn, compared to an actual deficit of CNY 1.8tn last December.”

“The government funds budget has substantial room for expansion; however, time is running out. In the first 11 months of 2019, revenue grew 9.5% y/y (faster than budgeted) and expenditure rose 19% y/y (slower than budgeted). As a result, the YTD deficit is at CNY 790bn, CNY 622bn higher than the same period last year. This implies that the December deficit could be CNY1.4tn (which is practically unlikely), compared with a deficit of CNY 348bn last December.”