EUR/USD: Slight erosion of the base of its down channel – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that EUR/USD has seen a slight erosion of the base of its down channel at 1.0941 BUT has not closed below there.

Key Quotes

“We have a 13 count on the weekly chart plus the weekly RSI has not confirmed the new low so caution is warranted. Below here lies the 78.6% retracement at 1.0814. We also have a 13 count on the 240 minute chart, but the rebound is indicated to be likely to halt circa 1.1027, the 1st August low.”

“Nearby resistance is the near term downtrend at 1.1153 and the 200 day ma at 1.1271, but key resistance is 1.1328/51, the 2018-2019 down channel and the 55 week ma. A weekly close above this latter level is needed to negate downside pressure.”

“The market will need to regain the 55 week ma and channel at 1.1328/51 to generate upside interest.”