Odds of a no-deal Brexit rise as Johnson set to become next UK PM – Reuters poll

According to the latest Reuters poll, the odds of a no-deal Brexit outcome is at the highest since October 2017, UK Prime Minister (PM) front-runner and Brexit hardliner Boris Johnson looks set to take over the position next week.

Key Findings:

Chances of disorderly UK exit from European Union (EU) now 30% (highest since Oct 2017, June poll: 25%)

EU-UK free trade agreement is the most likely eventual outcome of Brexit.

Bank of England (BOE) to leave bank rate at 0.75% until 2021 (June poll: raise to 1.00% in Q3 2020).

UK trading with the EU under WTO rules now second most likely outcome, overtaking EEA membership.

The median forecast for a recession in the coming year was 30% and of one in the next two years was 35%, up from 25% and 30% respectively in June's poll.

The slump in sterling has driven up prices in import-reliant Britain and the economists who were polled expected inflation to hover around the Bank's target for the next three years at least.