EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Teasing falling wedge breakout

The EUR/USD is attempting a break above the upper edge of the falling wedge at a time when the treasury yields are looking toppy. The wedge breakout, if confirmed, would confirm a bearish-to-bullish trend change.

Daily Chart

• As can be seen, the pair is chipping away the wedge hurdle of 1.1338. A daily close above that level would confirm a breakout - the sell-off from the September high of 1.1815 has ended and the bulls have regained control.
• The move, if backed by a double bottom bearish reversal in the US 10-year treasury yield, could yield a stronger rally toward 1.1586 (61.8% Fib R of Sept/Nov drop).

Weekly Chart

• The falling wedge breakout, if confirmed in the daily, would validate the pair's quick recovery from below 200-week MA of 1.1308. Watch how a similar looking weekly candle in August was followed by a rally to highs above 1.18.
• A convincing close below the 200-week MA today would be bad news for the Euro bulls.