US and Canada: Key data for next week - NBF

Analysts at National Bank of Canada take a look at next week data to be released in the US and Canada.  

Key Quotes:

“In the U.S, we’ll get information about economic activity in early Q2 thanks to April data. To start with, industrial production may have risen moderately in the month, echoing a slight expansion of output in the manufacturing sector. A positive contribution is also expected from mining, in line with a jump in the number of rigs operating in the country.”

“Also in April, retail sales may have grown for a second consecutive month, but the expansion may have been limited by the stagnation of auto sales during the month. Excluding the latter category, sales could have advanced at a more convincing pace.”

“We’ll also get housing data for April, with small increases expected for both housing starts and building permits. The first clues on the state of the manufacturing sector in May will be available with the publication of the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys.”

Canada: “A lot of attention will be on the release of April’s consumer price index. The headline gauge may have risen 0.4% m/m (not seasonally adjusted), buoyed by above-seasonal gasoline price increases. Despite this rise, the year-on-year rate may have stayed put at 2.3% due to a negative base effect. Core prices, for their part, should have continued rising at a decent pace, reflecting an economy running above potential and the healthy state of the labour market. However, the annual rate of CPI-common should remain unchanged at 1.9%. In other news, both headline and ex-auto retail sales likely expanded for a third month in a row in March, helped by a strong upswing in gasoline prices which probably boosted gasoline station receipts. Also in March, manufacturing shipments may have posted another decent advance based on a healthy increase in exports of factory goods during the month.”