When are the UK data releases and how could they affect GBP/USD?

The UK Economic Data Overview

The UK industrial production and trade balance data for the month of March are scheduled for release at 0830 GMT in the European session ahead.

The manufacturing production, which makes up around 80% of total industrial production, is expected to arrive at -0.2% on monthly basis in Mar, same as that seen in Feb. Meanwhile, the total industrial production is expected to come in at 0.2% m/m in March when compared to a 1.1% reading booked previously.

On an annualized basis, the industrial production for March is expected to rise sharply to 3.1% versus 2.2% previous, while the manufacturing output is also likely to accelerate to 2.9% in the reported month versus 2.5% last.

Separately, the UK goods trade balance will be reported at the same time and is expected to come in at GBP -11.25 billion in Mar vs. GBP -10.20 billion last.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 20 and 35 pips in deviations up to 1.5 to -2.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

The UK releases are likely to be closely eyed by the GBP markets for fresh trading impetus. However, the main market-moving event for today remains the Bank of England’s (BOE) rate decision, policy meeting minutes and quarterly inflation report (QIR).

“Technically, momentum back above the 1.3600 handle is likely to confront strong hurdle near mid-1.3600s, marking a medium-term trend-line support break-point, above which the short-covering bounce could further get extended towards reclaiming the 1.3700 round figure mark. On the flip side, sustained weakness below the 1.3500 handle could find some support near the 1.3465 level, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.1987-1.4377 strong up-move, which if broken might turn the pair vulnerable to continue sliding towards testing the 1.3300 handle in the near-term,” Haresh Menghani, Analysts at FXStreet explains.

Key Notes

GBP/USD shifting around the bottom ahead of the BoE interest rate decision

Market movers for the day ahead - Rabobank

About the UK manufacturing production and trade balance

The Manufacturing Production released by the Office for National Statistics(ONS) measures the manufacturing output. Manufacturing Production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of UK manufacturing activity that dominates a large part of total GDP. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

The trade balance released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a balance between exports and imports of goods. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the GBP.