UK Q1 prelim GDP growth is likely to have slowed to 0.3% - Danske Bank

In the view of analysts at Danske Bank, the first estimate of the UK GDP is expected to show a slowdown in the first quarter of this year.

Key Quotes:

“According to indicators, GDP growth slowed in Q1 compared to Q4 17, the question is more by how much.

While the PMIs suggest GDP growth is likely to have slowed to 0.3%, the NIESR GDP estimate is as low as 0.2%. We estimate GDP growth was 0.25%, implying an annual growth rate of 1.4% y/y (don't be surprised if it is only 1.3%), which is among the lowest in the advanced economies.

Looking at real wage growth and business investments' intention, it is difficult to see a scenario with much higher GDP growth in the UK this year despite the political agreement on transition.”