GBP/USD back towards 1.41 post-NFP

The GBP/USD jumped about 100-pips after the US Non-Farm Payroll report. 
The NFP data disappointed GBP/USD bears which reversed their trading positions after the release.

The GBP/USD is trading at around 1.4083 up 0.57% on Friday as the NFP report came below expectations at 103K versus 193K forecast by analysts. In an immediate reaction, the Cable jumped more than 25 pips and has been grinding higher up to 1.4106 in the US session. 

Coming up in the UK next week will be the Industrial production and the UK manufacturing output data, both on Wednesday. While on the US calendar, the main macroeconomic data will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI) also slated on Wednesday.  

GBP/USD weekly chart

The GBP/USD is trading in a bull channel on the weekly chart. The currency pair is trading above its 50 and 100-week simple moving average (SMA). In mid-February, the 50-period SMA crossed above the 100-period SMA, which is called a golden cross and interpreted as a strong bullish signal by technical analysts. However, the GBP/USD is still trading below its key 200-period SMA at 1.4250 which is acting as dynamic resistance. A clear break above the level would be seen as bullish and can open the gates to the 1.45 psychological level and 1.50 swing high in the coming weeks. On the flip side, the main weekly supports are seen at 1.37 swing low and at the 1.30 figure, previous swing low and support base. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 60 and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is displaying a slow upward momentum.

GBP/USD daily chart

The GBP/USD rebounded from the 1.4000 handle after the worse-than-expected US Non-Farm Payroll report and found support at the 50-period simple moving average on the daily time frame. Immediate resistance is the 1.41 level which is the top of the range of the last week of trading. A clear break above the level can lead to the next resistance at 1.4245 swing high; followed by 1.4346 high of 2018. On the flip side, immediate support is seen at the 1.40 level. A clear break below the level and the 50-period simple moving average along with the ascending trendline can open the gates to 1.39 swing low, followed by 1.37 swing low established on March, 1. The daily RSI is above 50 while the MACD is gaining some mild bullish momentum.

GBP/USD 4-hour chart

The picture on the 4-hour chart further confirms the analysis made on the daily time frame. The GBP/USD found support at the 200-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart and has broken above both the 50 and 100-period simple moving average. The bulls took the lead at the 1.4000 support and are testing and consolidating close to the 1.41 resistance. The RSI is trading in positive territory close to the 60 level while the MACD indicator is slowly turning bullish, indicating potential continuation upward.  

GBP/USD 5-minute chart

The market found resistance at the 1.41 resistance level and is since then consolidating in a bear flag. The RSI is trading above 50 and the MACD is turning bullish. However, with the week coming to an end and the lack of market-moving data coming up, it is doubtful that any major continuation above 1.41 will be seen on Friday.