Retail sales preview: what to expect? - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect a robust 0.6% m-o-m increase in nominal core (“control”) retail sales in December (Consensus: 0.4%). 

Key Quotes:

"Against the backdrop of low unemployment and elevated consumer confidence, consumer spending in December was likely strong. Real consumer spending on core goods was a solid driver of GDP growth in Q3. This trend likely continued in Q4. Consumer vehicle sales likely rebounded in December, following a modest decline in November. 

December total light vehicle sales, reported by WardsAuto, exceeded our and markets’ expectations and suggested that sales at auto and auto parts dealers in December could increase decently. By contrast, sales at gasoline stations likely fell as retail gasoline prices trended lower in December relative to the level in November. Excluding auto sales, we expect a healthy increase of 0.4% (Consensus: 0.4%). Altogether, we expect a 0.5% increase in total nominal retail sales (Consensus: 0.5%)."