US: NFP to print a 50k reading for September – Deutsche Bank

Analysts at Deutsche Bank suggest that the US payrolls report will be the next main market hurdle although the hurricane impacts will mean the information contained within it will have less value than normal.

Key Quotes

“It's also fair to say that inflation is a more important variable than employment at the moment for central banks. An in-line ADP print (135k) earlier in the week and decent employment component readings out of the ISM’s makes it feel like the whisper number is slightly above the market consensus for today of 80k (vs. 156k in August).”

“Our US economists expect a 50k reading though. They've noted that the initially reported September 2005 employment report, which followed Hurricane Katrina, showed a -35k decline in nonfarm payrolls after averaging 174k over the three months ending in August 2005. It’s worth noting that the highest and lowest economist forecasts on Bloomberg for today are 260k and -45k - so the street collectively appears pretty confused. In these high intensity wage/inflation watching times, the average hourly earnings will be key. Our guys expect a solid 0.3% m/m partly for technical reasons.”