CAD: GDP likely grew by 3.5% q/q annualized in Q3 – RBC CM

Research Team at RBC Capital Markets, expects Canada’s GDP grew by 3.5% q/q annualized in Q3 following a wildfire-related 1.6% decline in Q2.

Key Quotes

“We see trade adding 1.6pp in the quarter (energy exports bouncing back in the quarter), with this knocked down from closer to 3.0pp by the import of a close to C$3bn offshore oil rig module in September. The compensatory add should provide a boost to business fixed investment and final domestic demand, with a 2.3pp add from the latter anticipated. Household consumption should be responsible for just under half (1.0pp) of that add. For the September GDP report, we see a 0.1% m/m gain as manufacturing and retail sales should each show ~0.5% monthly growth, but wholesale (-1.5% m/m) and utilities (-1.0% m/m after a string of gains) should detract.”