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26 Apr 2016
US durable goods orders: Not an excuse for revising GDP forecasts - ING
Rob Carnell, Chief International Economist at ING, explains that the headline of the durable goods orders report showed lower than expected numbers, while core shipments and orders tell a mixed story.
Key Quotes:
“Headline Durable goods rise less than expected, and core shipments and orders tell a mixed story.”
“The last monthly reading of durable goods orders for the first quarter does not provide any excuse for revising up already downbeat GDP figures for 1Q16 (due Thursday). Headline durable goods orders rose 0.8% MoM. But the core figures were both negative.”
“With forecasters largely geared up for a weak 1Q16 GDP release, these durable goods orders figures should not deliver much of a jolt to markets. More important will be next month's figures ,which will indicate if the second quarter looks any less bad, and brings a June FOMC rate hike back into play.”
“We suspect politics is playing a negative role in corporate investment decisions, and will most likely continue to do so until June at the earliest, and we continue to think that 3Q16 offers a better chance for the Fed to hike again than June.”
Key Quotes:
“Headline Durable goods rise less than expected, and core shipments and orders tell a mixed story.”
“The last monthly reading of durable goods orders for the first quarter does not provide any excuse for revising up already downbeat GDP figures for 1Q16 (due Thursday). Headline durable goods orders rose 0.8% MoM. But the core figures were both negative.”
“With forecasters largely geared up for a weak 1Q16 GDP release, these durable goods orders figures should not deliver much of a jolt to markets. More important will be next month's figures ,which will indicate if the second quarter looks any less bad, and brings a June FOMC rate hike back into play.”
“We suspect politics is playing a negative role in corporate investment decisions, and will most likely continue to do so until June at the earliest, and we continue to think that 3Q16 offers a better chance for the Fed to hike again than June.”