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22 Mar 2016
RBA’s Stevens signals AUD may be getting ahead of itself - BNP
BNP Paribas FX Strategy Team continues to favour fading AUD resilience and remain long EURAUD via options, following RBA Stevens speech earlier today.
Key Quotes
"Speaking at the ASIC Annual Forum in Sydney, RBA Governor Stevens sounded fairly upbeat, noting that the Australian economy was adjusting well to commodity price volatility and that there is room for monetary and fiscal policy to turn more accommodative in response to an economic downturn."
"On FX, Stevens noted that there is a risk the currency may be getting ahead of itself, consistent with previous comments that the AUD is perhaps a bit too high. Against this backdrop, we continue to favour fading AUD resilience and remain long EURAUD via options."
"This is also in line with STEER™, our short-term fair value model, which currently has the AUDUSD short-term fair value at 0.7339. Furthermore, Australian Q4 house prices moderated to 0.2% from 2.0%."
Key Quotes
"Speaking at the ASIC Annual Forum in Sydney, RBA Governor Stevens sounded fairly upbeat, noting that the Australian economy was adjusting well to commodity price volatility and that there is room for monetary and fiscal policy to turn more accommodative in response to an economic downturn."
"On FX, Stevens noted that there is a risk the currency may be getting ahead of itself, consistent with previous comments that the AUD is perhaps a bit too high. Against this backdrop, we continue to favour fading AUD resilience and remain long EURAUD via options."
"This is also in line with STEER™, our short-term fair value model, which currently has the AUDUSD short-term fair value at 0.7339. Furthermore, Australian Q4 house prices moderated to 0.2% from 2.0%."