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1 Nov 2013
Flash: EUR/USD builds downside momentum – TD Securities
FXstreet.com (Athens) – Greg Moore FX Strategist on behalf of TD Securities mentions, that the flood away from the EUR continued overnight, as the market continued to digest the less-dovish-than-expected Fed, strong US PMI, and weak Euro zone data in the past few days.
Key Quotes
“There were no new macro developments overnight to add to the pressure on the Single currency, but as we noted yesterday, positioning appears to have been very one-sided, suggesting a lot of room for long liquidation.”
“There continue to be several signals that we could see more downside in the days to come. Risk reversals continue to show increasingly stronger pricing for EUR puts v. calls; short term rate spreads have moved even further in the USD’s favor, suggesting EUR/USD ‘should’ be closer to 1.31/32; and looking at the short term charts, bearish momentum is still building and there are few signs of bottoming yet.”
“Euro zone PMIs on Monday are the next big focus for the pair, but without some strong upside surprises it may be a case of continued selling into the ECB meeting next Thursday. 1.3480/500 was a congestion zone through most of October and could provide some small intraday support. The next toe holds are spotted near 1.3425/35, before 1.3326.”
Key Quotes
“There were no new macro developments overnight to add to the pressure on the Single currency, but as we noted yesterday, positioning appears to have been very one-sided, suggesting a lot of room for long liquidation.”
“There continue to be several signals that we could see more downside in the days to come. Risk reversals continue to show increasingly stronger pricing for EUR puts v. calls; short term rate spreads have moved even further in the USD’s favor, suggesting EUR/USD ‘should’ be closer to 1.31/32; and looking at the short term charts, bearish momentum is still building and there are few signs of bottoming yet.”
“Euro zone PMIs on Monday are the next big focus for the pair, but without some strong upside surprises it may be a case of continued selling into the ECB meeting next Thursday. 1.3480/500 was a congestion zone through most of October and could provide some small intraday support. The next toe holds are spotted near 1.3425/35, before 1.3326.”