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9 Dec 2015
FOMC: Hawkish shift in composition in 2016 vs. 2015 - RBS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at RBS, notes that looking ahead to the composition of the FOMC in 2016, we note that the committee will be made up of more hawkish bank presidents in 2016 than 2015.
Key Quotes
“The four Reserve Bank Presidents who rotate on to the FOMC in 2016 are Mester (Cleveland), Rosengren (Boston), Bullard (St Louis), and George (Kansas City). The four Reserve Bank Presidents who rotate off the FOMC in 2016 (after voting in 2015) are Evans (Chicago), Lacker (Richmond), Lockhart (Atlanta), and Williams (San Francisco).”
“Richmond Fed President Lacker is the most hawkish bank president in our view and will no longer vote in 2016. However, three other known hawks (Bullard, George, and Mester) will vote in 2016. We believe those three bank presidents (Bullard, George, and Mester) are the most hawkish bank presidents in the Federal Reserve system following Lacker.”
“Meanwhile, Boston Fed President Rosengren (a dove) will become a voter in 2016. However, we believe Rosengren is slightly less dovish than Chicago Fed President Evans (who rotates off the FOMC in 2016). Atlanta Fed President Lockhart and San Francisco Fed President Williams – whom we consider to be centrists with slightly dovish leanings – also rotate off the FOMC in 2016. On net, then, the composition of FOMC leans more hawkish in 2016 versus 2015.”
Key Quotes
“The four Reserve Bank Presidents who rotate on to the FOMC in 2016 are Mester (Cleveland), Rosengren (Boston), Bullard (St Louis), and George (Kansas City). The four Reserve Bank Presidents who rotate off the FOMC in 2016 (after voting in 2015) are Evans (Chicago), Lacker (Richmond), Lockhart (Atlanta), and Williams (San Francisco).”
“Richmond Fed President Lacker is the most hawkish bank president in our view and will no longer vote in 2016. However, three other known hawks (Bullard, George, and Mester) will vote in 2016. We believe those three bank presidents (Bullard, George, and Mester) are the most hawkish bank presidents in the Federal Reserve system following Lacker.”
“Meanwhile, Boston Fed President Rosengren (a dove) will become a voter in 2016. However, we believe Rosengren is slightly less dovish than Chicago Fed President Evans (who rotates off the FOMC in 2016). Atlanta Fed President Lockhart and San Francisco Fed President Williams – whom we consider to be centrists with slightly dovish leanings – also rotate off the FOMC in 2016. On net, then, the composition of FOMC leans more hawkish in 2016 versus 2015.”