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8 Dec 2015
NOK hinges on Norges Ban and oil – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analyst at Danske Bank Kristoffer Lomholt sees the NOK’s price action depending on the Norges Bank and oil-dynamics.
Key Quotes
“In respect of the NOK, we note that a falling oil price previously has triggered a rate cut in Norway, and viewed in isolation, the new low in Brent indeed has increased the probability of another rate cut from Norges Bank”.
“Recent data have been rather mixed but, in our view, not weak enough to trigger a rate cut, and our overall judgment is still that Norges Bank will keep interest rates unchanged at its rate setting meeting on 17 December”.
“However, a low oil price will surely keep rate cut speculations alive and thus remain a supporting factor for EUR/NOK going into the meeting”.
“According to our shortterm financial models, yesterday’s sharp rise in EUR/NOK to 9.40 was fair and the cross trades very close to the model’s fair estimate of 9.4267”.
Key Quotes
“In respect of the NOK, we note that a falling oil price previously has triggered a rate cut in Norway, and viewed in isolation, the new low in Brent indeed has increased the probability of another rate cut from Norges Bank”.
“Recent data have been rather mixed but, in our view, not weak enough to trigger a rate cut, and our overall judgment is still that Norges Bank will keep interest rates unchanged at its rate setting meeting on 17 December”.
“However, a low oil price will surely keep rate cut speculations alive and thus remain a supporting factor for EUR/NOK going into the meeting”.
“According to our shortterm financial models, yesterday’s sharp rise in EUR/NOK to 9.40 was fair and the cross trades very close to the model’s fair estimate of 9.4267”.