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3 Nov 2015
AUD: Hunting for a bottom - Rabobank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Jane Foley, Research Analyst at Rabobank, notes that the decision by the RBA to leave interest rates unchanged overnight propelled the AUD into the position of best performing G10 currency on a 1 day view.
Key Quotes
“Without doubt there was a dovish bias to this morning’s statement with the RBA clearly leaving the door open for further easing. The statement specifies that members “observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.” The Bank also states that “the Board will continue to assess the outlook, and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target.” In short policy decisions going forward will be data dependent.”
“The RBA is also scheduled to hold a policy meeting in early December but a rate cut so soon after today’s meeting would likely require a clear trigger. This could potentially come from signs of further softening in conditions in the Asian region, on the back of a spate of weak domestic data or from a strengthening in the value of the AUD. So all of these factors will be closely watched in the coming weeks.”
“Although today’s RBA policy decision has lent AUD/USD support, we continue to see downside potential. Not only do we expect the RBA to have cut rates again by early 2016, but we are also anticipating a Fed rate hike in December. We maintain the view that AUD/USD can move towards 0.68 on a 6 mth view.”
Key Quotes
“Without doubt there was a dovish bias to this morning’s statement with the RBA clearly leaving the door open for further easing. The statement specifies that members “observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.” The Bank also states that “the Board will continue to assess the outlook, and hence whether the current stance of policy will most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target.” In short policy decisions going forward will be data dependent.”
“The RBA is also scheduled to hold a policy meeting in early December but a rate cut so soon after today’s meeting would likely require a clear trigger. This could potentially come from signs of further softening in conditions in the Asian region, on the back of a spate of weak domestic data or from a strengthening in the value of the AUD. So all of these factors will be closely watched in the coming weeks.”
“Although today’s RBA policy decision has lent AUD/USD support, we continue to see downside potential. Not only do we expect the RBA to have cut rates again by early 2016, but we are also anticipating a Fed rate hike in December. We maintain the view that AUD/USD can move towards 0.68 on a 6 mth view.”