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4 Sep 2015
RUB seen higher by year-end – BAML
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of analysts at BAML, the Russian currency could gather traction towards the end of 2015.
Key Quotes
“We cut our forecast to RUB60/$ for 2015 eop and to RUB61/$ for 2016 eop (Not enough shocks)”.
“August is traditionally a difficult month for the RUB, going back to the 1998 and 2008 crises and has fundamental reasons for such pronounced negative seasonality, such as the peak of profit repatriations after dividend repayments and the seasonally weak trade balance”.
“On top of that, the RUB remains under strong pressure from volatile oil prices and general EM pressures following the recent CNY devaluation”.
“Therefore, we view further RUB weakness as likely if the decline in oil prices intensifies or if EM markets fall under a new round of sector pressures”.
“In addition, Russian markets and the RUB remain subject to secular political risks related to the lingering political crisis in eastern Ukraine”.
Key Quotes
“We cut our forecast to RUB60/$ for 2015 eop and to RUB61/$ for 2016 eop (Not enough shocks)”.
“August is traditionally a difficult month for the RUB, going back to the 1998 and 2008 crises and has fundamental reasons for such pronounced negative seasonality, such as the peak of profit repatriations after dividend repayments and the seasonally weak trade balance”.
“On top of that, the RUB remains under strong pressure from volatile oil prices and general EM pressures following the recent CNY devaluation”.
“Therefore, we view further RUB weakness as likely if the decline in oil prices intensifies or if EM markets fall under a new round of sector pressures”.
“In addition, Russian markets and the RUB remain subject to secular political risks related to the lingering political crisis in eastern Ukraine”.