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22 May 2015
The partial recovery in the rouble since the start of the year is mostly a result of a stabilisation in global oil prices and improved sentiment, in our view. However, we still view the geopolitical s
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at Danske Bank keep a cautious stance for the Russian currency, mainly due to geopolitical risks.
Key Quotes
“We expect the economy to bottom out in Q2, due to a lag in monetary policy which had been tightened and is keeping fixed investment and private consumption growth deeply negative”.
“On 30 April, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) cut the key rate by 150bp to 12.5%. The main reason given by the central bank for the cut was ‘lower inflation risks and persistent risks of considerable cooling of the economy’. We expect the CBR to ease further during 2015, ending up at 8% in December 2015”.
“The partial recovery in the rouble since the start of the year is mostly a result of a stabilisation in global oil prices and improved sentiment, in our view. However, we still view the geopolitical situation around Ukraine as fragile, making escalation very possible, which poses downside risk to our RUB forecast”.
Key Quotes
“We expect the economy to bottom out in Q2, due to a lag in monetary policy which had been tightened and is keeping fixed investment and private consumption growth deeply negative”.
“On 30 April, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) cut the key rate by 150bp to 12.5%. The main reason given by the central bank for the cut was ‘lower inflation risks and persistent risks of considerable cooling of the economy’. We expect the CBR to ease further during 2015, ending up at 8% in December 2015”.
“The partial recovery in the rouble since the start of the year is mostly a result of a stabilisation in global oil prices and improved sentiment, in our view. However, we still view the geopolitical situation around Ukraine as fragile, making escalation very possible, which poses downside risk to our RUB forecast”.