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27 Feb 2015
Key events from the EZ next week - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Jacqui Douglas, analyst at TD Securities noted the up and coming events to take place next week in the Eurozone.
Key Quotes:
"ECB Decision (Thurs 5 March): This should not be a particularly market moving ECB meeting for once, as the major announcements have been made. There are still a few operational details which needed to be clarified in terms of exactly when asset purchases will begin and under exactly what rules, which may lead to some relative shifts in the EGB market, while having the rubber finally meet the road in March in starting purchases should reinforce the trend for euro lower."
"Norway Q1 Oil Investment Survey (Thurs 5 March): The November oil investment survey wasn’t as bad as had been feared, given the huge drop in oil prices, but markets are likely looking for something softer this time around. The final 2014 investment figures will likely be revised lower, but the bigger question is what happens to the 2015 estimates as oil firms have had more time to absorb the impact of lower oil and adjust their plans accordingly. The deeper the 2015 downgrade, the more likely it is that the Norges Bank cuts more than the two 25bps cuts that we’re looking for."
"Eurozone CPI (Mon 2 March): With oil prices having stabilized in February and the upside we saw in German CPI, apparently led by higher food prices, Eurozone CPI should also push higher in Feb. Markets are looking for CPI to rise from –0.6% Y/Y in Jan to -0.5% Y/Y in Feb, but the risks here lie to the upside after the uptick in the preliminary German, Spanish, and Italian data. That being said, any upside here shouldn’t have a significant market impact as the ECB has already committed to doing QE until at least September 2016, and the focus for markets will be on the start of EGB purchases in March."
Key Quotes:
"ECB Decision (Thurs 5 March): This should not be a particularly market moving ECB meeting for once, as the major announcements have been made. There are still a few operational details which needed to be clarified in terms of exactly when asset purchases will begin and under exactly what rules, which may lead to some relative shifts in the EGB market, while having the rubber finally meet the road in March in starting purchases should reinforce the trend for euro lower."
"Norway Q1 Oil Investment Survey (Thurs 5 March): The November oil investment survey wasn’t as bad as had been feared, given the huge drop in oil prices, but markets are likely looking for something softer this time around. The final 2014 investment figures will likely be revised lower, but the bigger question is what happens to the 2015 estimates as oil firms have had more time to absorb the impact of lower oil and adjust their plans accordingly. The deeper the 2015 downgrade, the more likely it is that the Norges Bank cuts more than the two 25bps cuts that we’re looking for."
"Eurozone CPI (Mon 2 March): With oil prices having stabilized in February and the upside we saw in German CPI, apparently led by higher food prices, Eurozone CPI should also push higher in Feb. Markets are looking for CPI to rise from –0.6% Y/Y in Jan to -0.5% Y/Y in Feb, but the risks here lie to the upside after the uptick in the preliminary German, Spanish, and Italian data. That being said, any upside here shouldn’t have a significant market impact as the ECB has already committed to doing QE until at least September 2016, and the focus for markets will be on the start of EGB purchases in March."