BoJ Preview: Right now, is about the stupidest time to normalize – Commerzbank

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its last monetary policy decision of the year on Tuesday. Economists at Commerzbank analyze Yen’s outlook ahead of the meeting.

Will the BoJ hint at a turnaround?

There were a thousand reasons to normalize earlier. And perhaps there will be many reasons to normalize in the near future (if inflation proves to be more persistent). But right now (and certainly in January) is about the stupidest time to do it.

Now, in the case of the BoJ, you can never rule out the possibility that it will do things that you think are irrational. So I am by no means saying that such signals on Tuesday are completely out of the question. But they would be ‘noise’ – something that fundamental analysis is closed to.

I am not advising anyone to ignore JPY exchange rate risks in connection with Tuesday's session. But at the same time, I cannot advise anyone to bet on JPY strength. Because a rational BoJ would not send such signals this week.