USD/CNH: Increasing risks to extra losses – UOB

Further downside in USD/CNH should not be ruled out in the near term, comment UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: We expected USD to trade sideways in a range of 7.2460/7.2860 yesterday. USD then traded in a narrower range than expected (7.2550/7.2779). We continue to expect USD to trade sideways, even though the slightly firmer underlying tone suggests a higher range of 7.2650/7.2930. 

Next 1-3 weeks: Our update from yesterday (04 Sep, spot at 7.2670) still stands. As highlighted, there is a slight increase in downside risk. However, USD must break and stay below 7.2390 before a sustained decline is likely. The chance of USD breaking clearly below 7.2390 will remain intact as long as USD stays below 7.3000 in the next few days.