USD/CHF sticks modest gains around 50-DMA, bulls await sustained move beyond 0.9000
- USD/CHF attracts buying for the fourth straight day and is supported by modest USD strength.
- The hawkish FOMC minutes reaffirm bets for a 25 bps lift-off in July and underpins the buck.
- The softer risk tone benefits the safe-haven CHF and acts as a headwind ahead of the US data.
The USD/CHF pair trades with a positive bias for the fourth straight day on Thursday, albeit lacks follow-through and remains below the 0.9000 psychological mark through the Asian session.
The US Dollar (USD) adds to its weekly gains and climbs back closer to its highest level since June 12 touched last Friday, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair. The minutes from the June FOMC meeting released on Wednesday revealed that almost all members supported resuming rate hikes as inflation remains unacceptably high, reaffirming bets for a 25 bps lift-off at the upcoming FOMC meeting on July 25-26. This led to the overnight sharp rise in the US Treasury bond yields and continues to lend support to the Greenback.
The USD/CHF pair, however, still seem to struggle to capitalize on the move beyond the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and remains confined in a familiar trading range held over the past three weeks or so. A generally weaker risk tone, which tends to underpin the safe-haven Swiss Franc, holds back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets and seems to cap the upside for the major. The market sentiment remains fragile in the wake of worries over a global economic slowdown and the potential risk of a further escalation in the US-China trade conflict.
It is worth recalling that China introduced fresh export curbs on two metals - widely used in semiconductors, electric vehicles and high-tech industries - to the US. The abrupt move, which is set to take effect on August 1, might cause more disruption to global trade and hamper already weak economic conditions. This, in turn, takes its toll on the global risk sentiment and makes it prudent to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the 0.9000 psychological mark before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move for the USD/CHF pair.
Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of the ADP report on private-sector employment, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the ISM Services PMI and JOLTS Job Openings data. Apart from this, the US bond yields, will influence the USD price dynamics, which, along with the broader risk sentiment, should provide some impetus to the USD/CHF pair. The focus, however, will remain glued to the closely-watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as the NFP report on Friday.
Technical levels to watch