ECB 50 bps hike in March a done deal, May and June undecided – Reuters Poll

According to a vast majority of economists surveyed by Reuters, the European Central Bank (ECB) could continue with rate hikes at least at two more meetings, bringing up the terminal rate to 3.25% in the second quarter of this year.

Key takeaways

All 57 of them polled in the Feb. 10-15 period expected a deposit rate hike to 3.00% at the March 16 meeting.

Twenty-six of 56 respondents expected a hike of 25 basis points next quarter, 19 expected a 50-basis-point move, while nine said no move and a further two said the ECB would accelerate its pace of tightening and deliver a 75-basis-point increase.

The poll suggested euro area inflation would continue to fall, it was not expected to reach the ECB's 2.0% target until 2025 at least.

None of the 22 respondents to another question said the ECB would cut rates this year.

Gross domestic product was predicted to expand 0.4% this year before growth accelerates to 1.2% in 2024.

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